Figuring out who is and isn’t underrated can be a fickle process. Fans and analysts of specific teams can shout ‘you clearly don’t watch this player enough’ when that is definitely not the case. On top of that, highlighting players that are thought to be underrated might, in fact, be properly rating them. Either way, there are players that do not get the coverage they should and that’s what this is for.
Off the top, we’re not including Aleksander Barkov. He is a tremendous player and has been on underrated lists for years. He has four top-5 Selke Trophy finishes over the prior six seasons, including one win during the Patrice Bergeron-Anze Kopitar-Ryan O’Reilly era. We can let that sleeping horse lie. Same with Brayden Point, Joel Eriksson Ek, Jared Spurgeon, and Jaccob Slavin.
As for the roster itself, we’re constructing a normal NHL roster with 12 forwards – preferably at their correct positions – six defencemen, and two goalies, and we’ll do an honourable mentions portion at the end. Recent history will factor in, not only the 2023-24 season. Let’s not waste time and just get to it.
The Locks
There are guys that have to be on this list because they are so tremendously talented/effective but rarely get recognition for it. These will be established players and not rookies having a good half-season, and are as follows:
Brandon Hagel – Since the start of the 2022-23 season, there are 27 forwards that have posted at least 0.8 goals/60 minutes and 0.8 primary assists/60, and Hagel is one of them. Of those 27 forwards, only 15 also have an Evolving Hockey expected goal rate-adjusted plus/minus (xG RAPM) over 0.2, or the 83rd percentile, and that includes Hagel. Finally, of those 15 players fitting the primary points criteria with an 83rd percentile xG RAPM, just 11 are also higher than 0.15 goals for/against per 60: Nathan MacKinnon, Auston Matthews, Elias Pettersson, Connor McDavid, Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson, Matthew Tkachuk, Sidney Crosby, Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt, and Hagel. Look at that list again and see which players are superstars, and aren’t on the same team. Hagel might be the most underrated player in the league.
Carter Verhaeghe – Playing on a team with the Perennially Underrated Aleksander Barkov is likely to leave an excellent player also being underrated, and that’s what’s happened with Verhaeghe. He is top-10 by 5-on-5 goals/60 over the last three seasons, top-12 by 5-on-5 points/60, but has poor defensive metrics. For a scoring winger, we’ll take that.
Jared McCann – Over the last 2.5 seasons, there are nine forwards with at least 10.0 expected Wins Above Replacement, per Evolving Hockey, and McCann is one of them (the rest of the list are basically the superstars of the league). He is also top-25 by Wins Above Replacement in that span while ranking third (!) by goals/60 at 5-on-5, behind only Matthews and David Pastrňák. He was once traded for Erik Gudbranson.
Phillip Danault – This is a selection of a player that is often on the underrated lists, but the lack of raw production (one 20-goal season, zero 60-point seasons) merits his inclusion. Over the last six seasons, his xG RAPM is in the 95th percentile of the league while his on-ice goal differential is 88th percentile. His closest comparable in these regards is Sean Couturier. So… yeah.
Travis Konecny – This may be the last season Konecny is on the Underrated Roster because an All-Star game nomination and near-certainty of back-to-back 30-goal seasons will push him over the top. Over the last two seasons, his primary points/60 at 5-on-5 rates higher than names like Ehlers, Robertson, Kucherov, and Aho. Over those two seasons, he is the only regular penalty killer in the league with a goal share over 35%, which (roughly) means for every two Flyers goals against when he’s on the ice for the PK, Philadelphia scores one. An incredible player.
Joel Farabee – One of the closest comparable players at 5-on-5 to Hagel over the last two years is Farabee, who has produced similar goals/60 and primary assists/60 rates. For overall points/60 at 5-on-5, his last three seasons have produced a higher rate than Aho, Andrei Svechnikov, Dylan Larkin, and JT Miller. The defensive issues are what keep him below Hagel, and he’s not the goal scorer that Verhaeghe is, but he is a very, very good offensive player.
Warren Foegele – Over the last two seasons, Foegele has similar goals/60 and primary assists/60 rates to Hagel and Farabee, which warrants his inclusion on this list. He also is inside the top-20 by xG RAPM among regular forwards, but the goal differential suffers because of porous goaltending behind him and the lack of turning his expected goals into actual goals. A fun note about those last two seasons: in the 410 minutes Foegele has skated with Leon Draisaitl at 5-on-5, the team has a 61% goal share (!) and 58.7% expected goal share. Those numbers are worse – especially the goals for/against – for both players when they’re not on the ice with each other. Paging Knoblauch.
Vincent Trocheck – Going from a team with Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau (when he was good) to a team with Artemi Panarin and Adam Fox is likely to leave a player overshadowed. Despite that, the last three seasons have him as 1 of 35 forwards to average over 0.1 xG RAPM/60 and 0.1 goals-for/against/60 at even strength. The last two seasons have him with a higher primary assists/60 at 5-on-5 than names like Kevin Fiala, Robert Thomas, Nikolaj Ehlers, and Nikita Kucherov.
Radko Gudas – There are seven defencemen over the last three seasons averaging over 0.2 xG RAPM/60 and 0.15 goals-for/against/60 at even strength. That list includes a number of players typically thought of as underrated – Toews, Slavin, Spurgeon – one Norris Trophy winner (Adam Fox), one future Norris Trophy winner (Charlie McAvoy), and one name we’ll see later on. The last name is Gudas, who has been a tremendous defensive option for years now. Truly one of the more underrated defencemen of the last decade.
Jake Walman – It may not take long until he graduates to ‘properly rated’ but over the last two seasons, Walman leads Detroit’s blue line in both xG share and goal share at 5-on-5, and he leads all defencemen by goals/60. Over the last three seasons, his xG RAPM is 32nd among regular defencemen, or easily a top-pair rate, and easily the rate of a high-end number-2 defenceman. He was once traded for Nick Leddy.
Gustav Forsling – Players put on waivers often won’t matter, but sometimes they do: Paul Byron, Mike Hoffman, and Eeli Tolvanen are some names that come to mind. Gustav Forsling is another as he was grabbed from Chicago (lol) in January of 2021. Over the last three seasons, Forsling is one of six defencemen in the league with a goal share at 5-on-5 over 60% while ranking in the 91st percentile by points/60 at 5-on-5. He was free!
Sam Montembeault – Maybe he’s starting to catch the league’s eye now, but Montembeault has been solid for a while. His last three seasons total have produced a Goals Saved Above Expected/60 at even strength higher than Jacob Markstrom and Jake Oettinger. His GSAx/60 at evens is in the top-third of the league’s regular goalies in that span. It is a wonder what his boxcar stats will look like once (if) Montreal’s defence improves.
Alright, at this point, we have our locks, and this is what the roster looks like so far:
Brandon Hagel – Phillip Danault – Travis Konecny
Carter Verhaeghe – Vincent Trocheck – ???
Warren Foegele – Jared McCann – ???
??? – ??? – ???
Gustav Forsling – Radko Gudas
Jake Walman – ???
??? – ???
Sam Montembeault
???
We are short five forwards, three defencemen, and a goalie. Let’s look into some younger players. The qualification for ‘young player’ will be anyone who has appeared in at least three NHL seasons but is 25 years old or younger.
The Young Stars
JJ Peterka – Though he has just 68 career points, only eight of those have come on the power play. Over the last two seasons, Peterka’s 2.15 points/60 at 5-on-5 is tied with Brock Boeser, a shade behind Mathew Barzal and Sebastian Aho, and a shade ahead of Joe Pavelski and Tyler Toffoli. That span has his xG RAPM at a second line rate, and similar to names like Nazem Kadri and Bryan Rust. He will not be on the underrated list for long.
Owen Tippett – Proving that his 2022-23 season wasn’t a fluke, Tippett’s 82-game pace is for 31 goals and that’s with little power play production. If the Flyers had a good power play, he could push 40 goals this year. The last two years have seen his expected goals-for play driving rank in the 87th percentile of the league. He isn’t stellar defensively, but there’s more than enough of that in the rest of the lineup.
We’ve added a few more names to the list and this is what the lineup looks like now:
Brandon Hagel – Phillip Danault – Travis Konecny
Carter Verhaeghe – Vincent Trocheck – JJ Peterka
Warren Foegele – Jared McCann – Owen Tippett
??? – ??? – ???
Gustav Forsling – Radko Gudas
Jake Walman – ???
??? – ???
Sam Montembeault
???
We need our fourth line, a pair of defencemen, and a goalie.
The Bubble Inclusions
Alright, let’s get to the guys we have on the bubble. There were five centres that popped up as our potential fourth-line option. When looking at the five options, one player led them by expected WAR/60, actual WAR/60, goals-for/against plus/minus, points/60 at 5-on-5, and goals/60 at 5-on-5 over the last three seasons. With due respect the other four, our last centre is:
Brock Nelson – It is really hard to comprehend the career of Brock Nelson. He never had more than 26 goals in a season until he turned 30 years old, and then had back-to-back seasons of 37 and 36 goals. This season, he’s on pace for 34. Again, this is all after turning 30 years old. He led the other four contenders in all the stats listed in the previous paragraph, so he gets in.
Conor Garland – It came down to five wingers for our final two wing spots. Of those five, Garland leads the group by points/60 at 5-on-5, primary assists/60 at 5-on-5, primary points/60 at 5-on-5, WAR/60, xWAR/60, goals for-against/60 at even strength, and was second by xG RAPM. Since getting to Vancouver, he leads their forwards – including Pettersson, Miller, and Boeser – by on-ice expected goal share and actual goal share at 5-on-5. He is tremendous and is on the team.
Nino Niederreiter – This was the toughest cut to make because it came down to Niederreiter and a great young forward, but the latter is considered a cornerstone of his franchise’s future while Niederreiter has played for three teams in three seasons somehow. Despite that, Niederreiter is in the 88th percentile by goals/60 at 5-on-5 over those three seasons, 96th percentile by xG RAPM at even strength, 86th percentile by goals-for/against/60, and 85th percentile by xWAR/60. The one knock is he’s not a good power play option, but he wouldn’t need to be on this roster.
Dylan DeMelo – Joining Niederreiter from the current Winnipeg roster is DeMelo. He is a right-hand shot, which we need, but he’s also very, very good. His points/60 at 5-on-5 over the last three seasons is in the thick of the other options – a second-pair rate – but his defence is tremendous. His xG against/60 at even strength over the last three seasons is second (!) in the league, behind only Spurgeon, and the actual goals against/60 rates in the 87th percentile. The offence is passable, but the defence is extremely good, so he’s on the team.
Marcus Pettersson – It came down to Pettersson and our last left-handed defenceman in consideration – we’ll discuss him in a bit – and the tie breaker was this: one of these guys has earned Norris Trophy votes in two different seasons and one hasn’t. Pettersson hasn’t, so he’s on the list. He is 92nd percentile by WAR/60 over the last three years, 76th percentile by points/60, and often takes shutdown matchups. He has significant positive impacts on both goals and expected goals at both ends of the ice, so he’s on the team.
Matt Roy – Our final skater spot came down to Roy and a younger option who has played low third-pair minutes his entire career. Considering Roy has been tasked with shutdown minutes at times, and has excelled over the last year with Vladislav Gavrikov as his partner, he makes the list as our final right-hand defenceman. He has positive impacts, both on goals and expected goals, at both ends of the ice, and his WAR/60 was in the 85th percentile or a high-end number-2 rate. His xWAR/60 is borderline 75th percentile, or easily a top-pair option.
Connor Ingram – At 26 years old, he just missed the young stars list, and his 2023-24 season has made him more of a household name, but he’s definitely getting included here. Over his three seasons, he is 12th in the league by goals saved above expected/60 at even strength, just behind Juuse Saros, and in the 75th percentile of all regular goalies. That puts him as a mid-level starting goalie, and on the All-Underrated Team.
Alright, that rounds out the squad. Including the bubble players, this is what we’re looking at:
Brandon Hagel – Phillip Danault – Travis Konecny
Carter Verhaeghe – Vincent Trocheck – JJ Peterka
Warren Foegele – Jared McCann – Owen Tippett
Conor Garland – Brock Nelson – Nino Niederreiter
Gustav Forsling – Radko Gudas
Jake Walman – Dylan DeMelo
Marcus Pettersson – Matt Roy
Sam Montembeault
Connor Ingram
I will say that in doing all this, the goalies were the hardest. At any given moment, there are only 64 of them in the league, and the ones that are playing well get praised and the ones that aren’t, well, don’t. Demko is probably too known of a quantity now but the options were limited. If not him, we’re still talking guys like Jakob Markstrom or Thatcher Demko. With that in mind, let’s go over the honourable mentions quickly.
HM Centres
JT Miller – He was in line for one of the final forward spots, but he didn’t quite get to the level of Nelson in a number of key areas that were highlighted so he was left off.
Charlie Coyle – This is a player whose estimation should be rising but too much time spent playing behind Patrice Bergeron (and David Krejci) hurt his case. He also didn’t rate near as high as Brock Nelson or either of the next two names.
Mikael Backlund – He probably would be the fifth centre, and the healthy scratch. The defence is superb but third-line production hurt his case, as did his lack of power play ability.
Nic Dowd – Everything that was just said for Backlund can be repeated for Dowd. Still a tremendous shutdown centre in the vein of Jordan Staal.
Robert Thomas – Considered and discarded because he’s been getting hyped by the local market and while he isn’t widely known, it just felt a little to ‘properly rated’ right now.
Nicolas Roy – A very good player whose offence isn’t as good as the metrics make it seem. He would be on our second-team All-Underrated roster.
HM Winger
Seth Jarvis – If Backlund were the fifth centre, Jarvis would be the ninth winger. The metrics are great, but it also feels like he’s starting to get some notoriety, too. It’s like he’s too good to be underrated but not good enough to be considered a bona fide star. You hate to see it.
Mathieu Joseph – A good defensive winger who probably needs help to really contribute offensively. It’s like if Niederreiter couldn’t score, which is why he was cut rather than Niederreiter.
Pierre Engvall – He gets a bad wrap but just look at some of Toronto’s bottom-6 mainstays since Engvall was traded and look at how he’s helped New York’s second line. He just isn’t as good offensively as his metrics would suggest which is what lifted Garland over him.
Nils Höglander – He could find his way here in a year’s time, but averaging 12:10 a game over the last three seasons just doesn’t show us enough of what he can really do.
Troy Terry – A year ago, he’d probably be on this list but it’s hard to truly call him underrated after signing a $49M contract for seven years.
HM Defence
Esa Lindell – The last spot on the roster came down to Pettersson and Lindell, and Lindell would be our seventh defenceman. He is tremendous defensively and is better offensively than he gets credit for.
Adam Pelech – Had Pelech been healthy (and good) this season, or if this list were being done at this time last year, he’d be on the team. But he hasn’t been healthy, and that has caused a downturn in his play, which is the cause for his exclusion. He could be back on the team a year from now, though.
Juuso Välimäki – Speaking of defensive play, over the last three seasons, the expected goals against play driving from Välimäki is top-10 in the league and in line with Gudas and Slavin. His overall xG RAPM is also in the top-10. There isn’t much offence, though, so there’s no real reason to include him over Pettersson, who has also been excellent and has played tougher minutes.
Jalen Chatfield – This was the last right-hand defenceman in consideration to get cut. He has produced positive impacts at both ends of the ice over the last three seasons, but in a sheltered third-pair role on a perennial Cup contender. That hurt his case a lot.
Alright, that’s it. Again, the three skater cuts we made were Backlund, Jarvis, and Lindell while the final goalie was Demko, who is getting too much attention to be considered underrated anymore. How’s it look?
*Data from Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey
Cliffy's hell-hole 